Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 34.662343 37.343038 40.275957 43.751130 47.794377 52.398964 58.112489
2025-10-12 31.369741 34.944050 39.105696 44.404247 51.120062 59.576835 71.447913
2025-10-19 29.600715 33.658781 38.572671 45.134033 53.965718 65.961535 84.604862
2025-10-26 28.080092 32.446619 37.901236 45.475476 56.211083 71.832579 98.672635
2025-11-02 26.545272 31.028167 36.756159 44.945872 57.027077 75.617457 110.485004
2025-11-09 25.038615 29.513123 35.326095 43.821404 56.745272 77.543256 119.580928
2025-11-16 23.775988 28.222737 34.081413 42.806498 56.444519 79.304143 128.957971
2025-11-23 22.859399 27.328693 33.302056 42.373294 56.964622 82.535129 142.914844
2025-11-30 22.381876 26.988946 33.254776 43.002973 59.264237 89.485852 169.880705
2025-12-07 21.636930 26.238230 32.568712 42.578582 59.699054 92.880588 189.683767
2025-12-14 20.697331 25.173978 31.370857 41.255338 58.393606 92.398381 197.175176
2025-12-21 19.979089 24.388544 30.538079 40.452405 57.935464 93.668790 212.054461
2025-12-28 19.945951 24.595085 31.215986 42.220646 62.610275 108.246152 302.627423
2026-01-04 19.634057 24.389477 31.266923 42.963108 65.483726 119.825724 417.937176
2026-01-11 19.325794 24.167707 31.269716 43.608463 68.258182 132.453196 617.972215
2026-01-18 18.967900 23.854253 31.107729 43.943610 70.436158 144.533798 979.283200
2026-01-25 18.452731 23.285057 30.510313 43.440646 70.675428 150.472193 1425.575921
2026-02-01 17.852320 22.567234 29.643623 42.382673 69.506451 151.026653 1811.659103
2026-02-08 17.308000 21.916211 28.857582 41.425054 68.466442 151.814980 2439.691930
2026-02-15 16.908635 21.470190 28.382496 41.016314 68.684018 157.745336 5469.177405
2026-02-22 16.734311 21.356835 28.438593 41.610524 71.431341 176.033478 NaN
2026-03-01 16.375403 20.949694 27.994605 41.210065 71.626711 183.206506 NaN
2026-03-08 15.870864 20.306260 27.138750 39.960268 69.490573 178.025749 NaN